February 2009

Some Post-Oscar Thoughts on Forecasting

FiveThirtyEight.com: Politics Done Right

Nate Silver is taking some guff for his foray into Oscar predictions. What is revelatory in this 538 post is how his venture into understanding why he missed two of three contested Oscars tracks his approach to baseball projections.

The model may be wrong, but that’s fixable. Which is why PECOTA gets better every year. What isn’t, as Nate so politicly admits, are the vagaries of unprojectable circumstances. Nate found out that projecting six Oscars with a dubious data set focuses much of the attention on the vagaries and the unprojectable. Um, he got them wrong.

Which is why his protracted explanations in this post are both admirable, he’s trying to figure it out, and a little sad–didn’t we trust him because he knew that already?

Regular readers know that I admire Nate’s work, but that I also think his great insight into projections is one of marketing. Not statistics. Nate figured out how to get everyone to ascribe the failure of his subjects to follow his model to his subjects, rather than to him. That isn’t a bad thing, it is a perfectly fine (perhaps brilliant) way to convey the confidence interval, but it doesn’t do much to help us explain the large swath of the numbers (in my case Baseball, in Nate’s, all of them) that are unpredictable.

Not baseball
Projections
Statistics
awards

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This Year, Patton $ in Cheaper Data Only Format, Available Now!

The Patton $ 2009 page

The link takes you to the information and ordering page for Patton $ Software and this year’s new product: The Data Only for Less!

For the many who use the software to prepare their own projections and prices, make their bid lists, and run their auction or draft, the price remains the same: $30. Click the buttons on the left side of the page, if you want to buy.

For the others, who have paid the $30 for the data only, in text and Excel formats, this year we’re offering the projections and bid prices for $15. Click the buttons on the right side of the page, if you want to buy.

Software owners will be able to access the data files from the software download page.

For those unfamiliar with the product, a visit to the Patton $ Software and Data information and ordering page, will answer many questions. Or ask a question here in the comments.

Alex Patton
Bid prices
Projections
Roto
Site news
software

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“Hand-made Trophies Worth Bragging About”

FantasyTrophies.com

Today I stumbled on an ad for Dave Mitri’s fantasy trophies on Rotowire, which I guess means they’re doing okay. I wrote them up last summer, in large part because I live around the corner from Dave and his wife Suzy, and also because the sculptures made me laugh.

They made me laugh again today, and I got to read this page about how the trophies are made, which is pretty impressive.

Art

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If the season were a horse race. Isn’t it?

BaseballRace.com

When I was a kid I had a toy race track and I spent an inglorious number of hours turning the dice to see which horse prevailed in that race.

As we all know now, but I didn’t as a magical thinking second grader, the winners came completely at random (though I may have given blue an advantage, since it was my color).

Baseballrace.com animates each season’s pennant race, so you can see in a picturesque display how far ahead the front runners were and how far behind were the laggards.

I’m not sure there’s much actual utility here, but the imaginative display of information may well help you or me or someone else to come up with an idea that changes the way we think. And even if it does not, coming up with something no one else is doing is reason enough to be proud. And wouldn’t it be a great idea for him to license the software to fantasy league stats providers, so that we can live and relive the year of our grief in a horse racey animation?

Okay, maybe not. But maybe.

History
MLB
Resources
Statistics
data

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Alex Rodriguez and the invisible depths of steroid abuse.

By William Saletan – Slate Magazine

I’m a regular reader of Slate, which features smart often contrarian writing about politics, culture and lifestyle. One regular column is called Human Nature, by William Saletan, a writer who specializes in parsing semantics and finding new or clearer meaning. Human Nature is about science, which allows him range broadly over a variety of topics.

I used to be a fan of his, but I stopped reading him after he wrote an explosive series about race and intelligence, quoting eugenics theorists who say there is racial difference without revealing that they often had ties to racialist groups. Saletan was trying to get at the truth about evolution, race, intelligence, and discuss how we should deal with legal, social and moral issues that come with knowing that there are racial differences in intelligence. That’s perhaps a brave and worthy topic, if you’re being speculative, but Saletan wrote it up as if the issue had been settled scientifically. It certainly has not been, and to assert that it is was a horrible blunder that destroyed the trust I had him as a writer.

Today he writes a piece, a horribly naive series of questions about ARod and baseball’s steroids testing, that purportedly points out that PED use is inevitably broader than the number of people caught (doh!), but also uses a broad brush to make all sorts of implications that just a little work would have taught him were false. 

The 2003 secret tests weren’t secret. They were part of a deal between MLB and the union. Everyone knew about them, and I’m pretty sure we can say there were no other agreed upon testing programs before 2003. To suggest that there were is just dumb.

If there were no other tests then the government didn’t seize any other results and the Union didn’t suppress them. If those things didn’t happen, and again, there is a nearly zero chance they did, to assert that they might have is just bogus and exploitative.

Saletan does talk about the allegations that Gene Orza, of the player’s union, warned A-Rod and others of the impending 2004 tests, as the basis for the union perhaps warning other players about other tests. Could have happened, I’ll give him that one. 

But a time line in the NY Times today shows that the 2004 testing didn’t begin until July of 2004, and the 104 players who tested positive in 2003 weren’t tested until they had been informed they’d tested positive–in September! With just a few weeks of testing to go between being told of their 2003 positive tests and the end of the season, those players were in effect told when the tests would happen, without actually being told. It becomes unclear how explosive the charge against Orza could be in this instance, but we’ll have to see what develops.

The reason the 2004 testing started late was because the union and the owners disagreed about technical issues involving the tests and the definition of a positive test, according to the Times. No one knows why it took the union months to inform the players who tested positive in 2003 about that after federal investigators seized the urine samples in April 2004. And no one knows why the union didn’t destroy the samples, as it was legally allowed to do, once the results had been certified in November 2003, which would have ensured the player’s anonymity, which had been a crucial component of the 2003 testing.

(I have a question. I assume that no one knew which players tested positive until the federal investigators seized the samples, at which point it became necessary to find out who they were in order to inform them that the government had their names and their positive tests. But I don’t know that. I’ve never seen the point addressed directly. Or maybe I should go back and reread the Mitchell report. But unless that was the case then the results weren’t really anonymous anyway.)

But I’m getting off track here. The point is that Saletan ignores the facts and just makes stuff up, and while that doesn’t invalidate his overall point (that more players used than tested positive in 2003) and while he points out that what he’s suggesting isn’t necessarily true, it is really bad form that most of his questions almost certainly aren’t true. That’s just shoddy.

Drugs
History
Legal
Mainstream Media

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The Meaning of Tiger

Joe Posnanski

This is a fine sports story. Call it a must read.

Blogs
Not baseball
Recommendations

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About The Guide 2009

The last post I wrote was about the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009, of which I’m the editor. I think we create an excellent preseason fantasy preview that also has, unlike nearly every other fantasy mag, value all season long. When a guy gets called up in midseason there’s a good chance he’ll be in the Guide.

The Guide also has last year’s Games Played by Position data (major leagues and minor), which you won’t find anywhere else in such easy format (for the 1500+ players included in the Guide).

I also want to point out that the Guide is a fantasy product that is fact based. The arguments made for and against players are based on information that is divulged as the argument is made. A lot of the world of baseball happens randomly, a great deal of the game’s outcomes are random, but that shouldn’t be an excuse for spouting. Maybe it’s a style thing, but I hate guys (always guys) shouting at me about what matters.

What matters isn’t shouting.

Thanks for listening, Peter.

Ps. The Guide has perceptive player profiles, the picks and pans of many industry lights, my bid prices (far in advance of the season) and access via the link in the editor’s letter to updated projections (which are way better than the mechanical projections we can do in November) and prices on the website. Plus strategy pieces from experts who won tough leagues, about how they did it. And the Creativesports.com Mock Draft, which saddled me with the first pick this year. I went with Pujols, though that isn’t the consensus choice. But that’s why we do it.

Ask Rotoman
The Guide

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the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 Cover

The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 Cover

The new Fantasy Baseball Guide 2009 has been out for a few weeks now, but I’ve been so busy and this is the offseason I hadn’t plugged it here. New this year are complete Major League and Minor League Games Played by Position for all the listed players.

Once again the five year Player Cost and Player Earned scans give a most excellent idea about how prices change after a player has had an inexplicably bad year. Not much. They also give a good idea of player’s real value, apart from whatever spike or slough he’s just gone through.

And, of course, there are the crowd pleasing Picks and Pans, in which a broad cross section of fantasy experts write their own player comments for the players they care for or loath most.

The mag is out in all the usual Barnes and Nobles and Walmarts and Borders and other newsstands and groceries. Enjoy.

The Guide

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