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SportingNews.com - David Pinto

File this one under weird math, unless I’m missing something. David Pinto looks at Denard Span’s PECOTA projections for OBP and sees a man far outperforming expectations at the major league. Is this a sign that Span will regress?

Pinto then looks at Span’s Triple-A numbers earlier this season and sees that they match what he’s doing at the major league level, suggesting he’s taken a great leap forward. So far, so good. This is the essence of player projection, at least the verbal kind where we identify interruptions in the data.

But he then does some math showing that there is virtually no chance that PECOTA’s evaluation is correct, based on Span’s breakout numbers this year. I’m inclined to accept the verbal argument that Span has improved his approach at the plate and so is getting on base more, but have a hard time accepting as proof this year’s sample.

That’s why we compare small sample sizes to larger ones, as a reality check. And when the small sample is out of line with the bigger one, we should be very skeptical.

Notably, this year, Span is walking more than he has in the past, in Triple-A and the bigs, but he’s also getting on base much more on balls in play, and a significant part of his OBP is due to his BA. It looks to me that at the end of the day (and not necessarily this season) he should end up a .360 OBP hitter. His .399 OBP now is as much the result of good fortune as improvements in his game (though it looks like there are some of those, too).

FantasyTrophies.com | “Hand-made Trophies Worth Bragging About”

The trophy we have in the American Dream League is your standard high school sports varsity participation trophy, except the golden posed player on top has been replaced by a 1940s era dial up phone. Similarly electroplated. It is an awesome thing, unique in every sense of the world, and fragile. One year the preceding year’s winner (winners keep the trophy until a new champion is crowned) delivered the trophy in a bag. Somehow the screws and bolts came undone and he just wasn’t handy enough to fix it. He hasn’t won since, though he’s in the lead this year (by a lot).

Trophies mean something, and these clever and handsome items are the work of a friend of a friend in my home town of Brooklyn, NY. The Throwback, picture above, made me laugh out loud when I saw it, which makes it a fit prize for the fantasy winner in your league this year. And it doesn’t look like it has any screws or bolts.

Baseball Prospectus (free)

Maybe it would be better if the lives of trees were at stake (he goes on a little) but this is an excellent analysis of the Sox-Bucs-Dodgers deal yesterday. Maybe it’s that there’s nothing mind-blowingly original (Epstein good, Coletti bad), but every point is made clearly and in a larger context. Maybe it’s that he ends on a somewhat confessional insidery note. This is a solid piece of work worth reading.

Sam Walker at Sportsline.com

Sam Walker wrote a very good book about fantasy baseball called Fantasy Land, which covered his first year in Tout Wars, which was also his first year playing fantasy baseball. As a Wall Street Journal reporter and with the estimable Nando del Fino as a partner, Sam finished in the middle of the pack his first year, but won Tout his second year.

He’s got a big lead this year, as filmmakers are using Tout AL and another newcomer to make a movie of Sam’s book. In this column at Sportsline he explains what he did to make that lead happen. Names like Duchscherer, Hamilton, and Ervin Santana go part of the way, but Sam thinks he did some smart things, too.

Yes, he did.

Mike Pianowski

Let me again recommend an excellent but hard to find Tout Wars essay, this time from the hyper competetive Mike Pianowski. I don’t personally believe him that he’s writing this story for himself, personally, but I think that that only amplifies the content. And I’m pretty sure Mike knows that, too.

Yep Roc Records Artist Info

Back when I was a boy I spent a dusky night or two at Gerdes Folk City in NY’s Greenwich Village, in its dying days, totally crazy for a LA band called the Dream Syndicate. (I also saw there an amazing Levon Helm/Rick Danko show that I count among the best I ever saw anywhere.) Folk City had once been a hangout of the nascent Bob Dylan, who among other things went on to write a song about Catfish Hunter, and who also wrote about his love for baseball in Chronicle. (Dylan has been touring in recent summers in minor league baseball parks, though I’m not sure he’s been taking in many games.)

About this same time I was also a little crazy for Jonathan Richman (wait, I still am), who was famous then for his awesome band the Modern Lovers, but who ended up being known most famously as the troubadour in the excellent hair-gel movie There’s Something About Mary. Jonathan, back in the old days, wrote an amazing song about Walter Johnson, and some other baseball songs as well.

So now, Steve Wynn, the lead guy of the Dream Syndicate, has made an album of baseball songs that have the same love for the game that Dylan and Richman have shown before. Wynn has a partner who I don’t know, so consider the credit shared, but these are rock songs about baseball in every good sense of the phrase.

Illustrative song title: “Ted Fucking Williams.”

Geek’s love: “Harvey Haddix,” which makes the case that losing a perfect game in the 13th inning shouldn’t have cost Harvey his status as a no-hitter pitcher.

There’s also a song about Curt Flood and the reserve clause! Sexy! And rockin’.

I’ve only listened once, but I like these songs, and I like these people. Play ball!

I bought the Baseball Project LP at www.emusic.com, by the way, which is a pretty good service for finding mp3 songs in a wide range of genres for a pretty fair price.

Alan Barra, Village Voice

I’m not sure I agree with Barra that the Yankees and Mets are cashing in, coasting instead of spending the ducats necessary to win. But the quote from Marvin Miller calling to task the phrase “fiscal responsibility” is powerful. If only we knew how much money the teams were making we could judge their decisions in this way. That we don’t know, yet we’re building them luxury palaces of profit maximization, is the real scandal.

Or maybe that’s the fiscal scandal. The possibilities that Brian Cashman isn’t very good at his job and that the Wilpons are as inept and dysfunctional as the Angeloses are very real, and I think better explain why these two big-spending teams aren’t very good.

Tout Wars

My essay about Tout Wars this year is about Mike Lombardo. He just wins.

Nate Silver Rocks

On this day, a couple of days past midseason, Nate Silver talks about how PECOTA only projected the Rays to win 88-90 games this year, an audacious projection that now seems a little lily livered. That’s how good the Rays have been.

My goal here is to shout out about Nate’s analysis, which is excellent, but I have another objective. In Joe Sheehan’s column today he also takes on the Rays. Tucked behind the BP pay wall I can only guess at his overall point, but the tease is apologetic for not getting the Rays analysis right in the preseason.

But, and maybe Joe is being coy here, it was his analysis of the deal for Garza and Bartlett (oh so many months ago) that turned me on to what seemed like the key preseason Rays story. This was a defense that was moving from crap to good, and there would be some pitchers who would benefit. Based on that analysis, of Sheehan’s,  I made a bet on Edwin Jackson, a post-hype starter who finished fairly strongly last year, but whose historical ineptitude made him a $2 pickup in the endgame.

There is a ton we don’t know about defense and how it helps and hurts teams, but when a team like the Rays moves from the bottom of the defensive efficiency ratings to the top, and at the same time dramatically reduces the number of runs it allows, it may be time to say that we at least know what works.

Without shorting the shrift of the excellent Nate Silver, I think this defensive shift has been Sheehan’s baby the last few years (at least) and he deserves a lot of credit for seeing what was happening.

TRADING ETIQUETTE

By PETER O’NEIL

As a father of three children between ages 11 and six I probably spend an inordinate amount of time dealing with manners: “Devin, elbows off the table please.” “McKenzie, don’t talk with your mouth full.” “Will, stop firing your Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast gun in Aunt Ruthie’s ear.”

So I’m particularly conscious these days of the social interactions surrounding trade negotiations.

Trading is at its best when you are honestly sharing ideas and information, keeping doors open, testing bottom lines, and finding the best deal that leaves both sides happy. In my experience this never happens if an owner involved in the negotiations is quick to spit venom at the first sign of a so-called “insulting” offer, or simply ignores e-mailed suggestions he doesn’t find appealing. Why even consider making offers to people like that?

I’m far from perfect on this front, but after giving this matter some thought I’ve come up with some dos and don’ts that I think make trade talks pleasant and build, rather than raze, bridges.

DO:

*No one likes the silent treatment. Try to respond promptly to a trade offer or e-mail query, even if it’s just a “thanks for the offer/idea but no thanks.” It’s pretty frustrating going to the trouble of putting together an offer, developing a rationale, and have it sit in someone’s in-basket for a week or longer. I know of someone who forgot about an offer he made in that situation, and it was finally accepted after the player he sought went on the disabled list. Now that’s both rude and unethical.

I realize some people will pester others with offers and not take no for an answer. A firm “thanks but I’m not interested” should be applied, and after that it makes total sense to ignore further contact.

*Throw in a few pleases and lots of thank-yous, the latter even if you get what you perceive to be a low-ball offer. “Thanks for this! I don’t think that would work for me, I’m not really a fan of Kevin Millwood and I’m pretty attached to King Felix, but when you’re ready to part with Peavy let’s talk.”

It might turn your stomach to laugh off a ridiculous offer but you only catch fish if some of them are nibbling.

*Conversely, try to respect your league-mates by doing your best to make sure the offer doesn’t insult the other person’s intelligence. Remember, even if they accept a low-ball deal the long-term impact could be negative, because if that person is burned they’ll be twice-shy. The other downside, of course, is they start to mistrust your offers even when they are legit.

I have some friends who say that respect means you should never make an offer without providing meticulous research to prove the deal is beneficial to the other guy. But in this era when everyone’s hyper-busy that’s not always realistic. It might be fairer to say: “Sorry, I’m busy, not sure if you want a steals guy and no time to check, but if you have a need for speed B.J. Upton is available for power.” The other guy doesn’t have to do any research at all to simply bang out on the keyboard “yes” or “no.”

*Respect confidences and privacy. It’s not ethical in my opinion to take elements of a private trade discussion public on a league forum without the permission of the other person.

DON’T:

*Say anything in trade discussions you wouldn’t say at a social event with acquaintances. For instance, calling an offer ridiculous or absurd is inflammatory, insulting and counterproductive. Maybe you think the insult is just, but if you want to trade with that person again why would you alienate them? And trust me, word will get around if you are abusive and others won’t want to deal with you either.

I received a very reasonable offer from someone this year, delivered politely, and I said no. He asked for a counter but I just didn’t have the stomach to offer one. Why? Last year he called an offer I made ridiculous and when I objected to his tone he said something along the lines of: “This isn’t a tea party, you know.” Well, he may think a fantasy baseball league encounter is the equivalent of a longshoremens’ night out at the local pub, but that’s not my style. I face enough stress, and challenging people, in my day job.

*Assume the person making what seems to be an obvious low-ball offer knows it’s a low-ball offer. It’s very hard to be objective about your own players. You follow a player through his minor league career and pick him in the March draft, he hits .340 in April with six home runs, you’re giddy as heck, feel like a genius, and suddenly notice an established player is hitting .196 in April with two rbis, and has a bothersome hammy. You listen to experts constantly chanting the mantra “buy low, sell high,” so you make an offer legitimately believing it’s fair, and then you get a response a treats it like a slap in the face. I remember touting Jeff Hamilton last year in late April and I got heckled a fair bit, but I legitimately believed I’d struck gold. I think his performance since then has proven that, when healthy, this guy is a stud. But when I flogged him in early-2007 trade talks some of my leaguemates treated me like a snake oil salesman.

Last year I broke my own rule and responded to an offer by saying something along the lines of, “Please be serious.” I had dangled the league’s best closer, looking for a starter, and was offered a rookie pitcher with a 5.00-plus era. But I think I let my disappointment over the lack of decent offers from others get the best of me, and I took out my frustrations on this poor guy. Maybe he’s in keeper leagues where this phenom is considered gold, and perhaps he actually thought the kid was about to have a huge second half. I felt badly, as the guy did take offence, and I think I unnecessarily burned a bridge.

*Harass or argue with someone who turns you down, unless they say something that you believe is fundamentally incorrect. Even then it’s probably best to begin with: “I realize we aren’t going to do this deal but I just wanted to point out that I think you are underestimating my player’s value because of…”

*Don’t always ask for offers without coming up with your own. Do some legwork yourself. I was in a league with a guy with the attention span of a three-year-old who would break most of the aforementioned rules. He’d post on the forum: “Offers! Where are my offers? C’mon guys, I need to make a move.” And when we actually sent him offers, by email or even by phone, he didn’t even respond.

To sum up, be polite and respectful, and don’t abuse the anonymity the internet age provides you. Pretend an e-mail is a phone call, and an actual exchange is a live conversation. Ask yourself: “Is this something I’d say face-to-face?” AND, most important, remember that no one views players exactly the way you do.

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(Peter O¹Neil, who covers Europe from Paris for a Canadian news agency, is a
former stock market columnist for the Financial Times of Canada. He won the
2007 Rotoman¹s Regulars non-keeper title and is multiple winner of the Brian
Baskin¹s Fantasy Baseball League based in Ottawa.)