We’ve started work, looking forward to a mid-July release. Cover discussions are always fun, of course. We’ve had some success the last two years with covers featuring the previous year’s Super Bowl-winning quarterback.
It looks like we might go the same way this year. What do you think? 
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Buck Davidson
The Dolphins have remained fairly quiet on the transaction front of late, but the team’s acquisition of former Saint Reggie Bush could have significant fantasy implications. Will Bush skewer the value of rookie Daniel Thomas, and can he finally justify that No. 2 overall pick he cost the Saints back in ’06? Let’s have a look at how things stand in the land of sun, sand, bikinis and incomplete passes.
QUARTERBACK
[Second] TYLER THIGPEN departed via free agency, and the Dolphins signed MATT MOORE to take his place. Moore showed some promise with Carolina two seasons ago, but he regressed badly in 2010. The 27-year-old probably won’t push Henne for the starting job right away, but he could enter the picture if Henne should stumble. Moore is not worth drafting, and he would be a marginal fantasy backup even if he were to assume the starting role.
[Third]. TOM BRANDSTATER looked to be the third-string guy when we went to press, but KEVIN O’CONNELL seems to have the inside track for that job now. This means precisely bupkus in fantasy terms.
RUNNING BACK
[Starter] The ‘Fins swung a deal with the Saints to bring REGGIE BUSH to LeBronville, and he has surprisingly earned the nod as the starting running back. Bush is what he is: a change-of-pace back and punt returner with good hands who lacks the durability to hold down a full-time role for very long. If he can stay healthy, Bush could be a decent fantasy option – especially in PPR leagues – but his lack of resilience is a major concern. While he’s the starter, Bush is a viable No. 3 fantasy running back.
[Backup] With Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both gone, second-round draft pick DANIEL THOMAS looked like he would take over as the Dolphins’ featured back this season. Unfortunately, Thomas has apparently failed to impress the Miami coaches so far, and has lost the starting gig to Reggie Bush. We still think Thomas will have a significant role, but as the second option to Bush he can’t be counted upon as a fantasy starter.
TIGHT END
[Backup] Sixth-round draft pick CHARLES CLAY looked like he could be a factor as an H-Back early on, and the backup job could be a competition between Clay and second-year man MICKEY SHULER. If either of those names are called during your draft, your league may be a bit too deep.
SPECIAL TEAMS
[Returners] REGGIE BUSH averaged just 6.6 yards per punt return last year, but as the starting running back he’ll likely cede the return duties to incumbent DAVONE BESS. Bess was one of the league’s better punt returners, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt, and his ability in that realm increases his fantasy value if your league rewards return yardage. Rookie EDMOND GATES – who now goes by Clyde Gates – could also be in the mix, meaning that the Dolphins could boast one of the league’s better return corps.
I’m not perfect. The Guide is usually produced on a short schedule by a small group of people. This year, we started later than usual and put out the magazine on an even shorter schedule. Some mistakes were made, and I thank readers who point them out. I sorely wish we hadn’t made them, and I really wish we’d caught them before the magazine was printed. I apologize that we didn’t. You will find them listed under the category Corrections, here at www.askrotoman.com/football.
Page 4, OFFENSIVE PLAYER of the year: “ADRIAN PATTERSON assumes his rightful spot as the focal point of the Vikings’ defense.” (Sometimes there is no explanation. I made a big mistake when editing.)
Page 5, NFC Champs, Scott Swanay, ATLANDA should be ATLANTA. (My typo went unnoticed. My bad.)
Page 39, FRED JACKSON, NE. For some reason he ended up with the Team ID for Benjarvus Green-Ellis. It should be BUF. Meanwhile, BENARVUS GREEN-ELLIS, BUF. For some reason he ended up with the Team ID for Fred Jackson. It should be NE. (After we’d gone to press we discovered a problem with the Joseph Addai profile and the Rebuttal. We were able to get the fix in at the last minute, but somehow that lead Jackson and Green-Ellis changing teams.)
Page 73, Mock Draft, Buck Davidson, 11th Round Pick. MARION BARBER is a Running Back, not a Tight End. The color of his square should be green, not purple. (My guess is art just pasted the wrong color, but for all the times I went over the mock draft pages, it’s my fault the error is there.)
Page 80, 2010 points, MICHAEL VICK is listed as a WR, not a QB. He is a QB, for sure. (For some reason the stats file we bought had Vick listed as WR. I was aware of this and thought I’d fixed it, but obviously didn’t. Not only that, but the same mistake is repeated on page 131 in the GameXGame stats.)
Thanks to Rick, Jeff and Brad.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Buck Davidson
There have been a few interesting developments in Minnesota since the Guide went to press: a big-time receiver left town, and a new starting quarterback checked into the fold. See how these development may affect your draft-day strategy as we revisit the Purple Gang; remember that these are updates only.
QUARTERBACK
[starter] The Vikes swapped a couple of draft picks for DONOVAN MCNABB back in late July, and the team expects the former Eagle and Redskin to handle most of the snaps in 2011. Good luck with that – McNabb has played more than 14 games only once in his past six seasons. He’s not that good when he is on the field either: McNabb has tossed more than 25 touchdown passes just once in his 11-year career, and his mediocre 11.6 yards rushing per game last season was his best effort since 2007. Overrated? You bet. McNabb is a low-end No. 2 fantasy quarterback at best – and only then in deeper leagues.
[second] Rookie CHRISTIAN PONDER looked to be in line for a starting gig before the McNabb deal, but now he’ll watch – hopefully not everything – the veteran does this season. McNabb is a near-lock to suffer an injury of some sort, and he’s a decent bet to lose his job due to ineffectiveness – so Ponder should see the field at some point in 2011. The youngster has great field acumen, and looks to possess the tools for success, but he should be ignored in all yearly fantasy leagues until he’s starting for the Vikes.
[third] JOE WEBB will probably end up third on the depth chart by the time Week 1 rolls around, and he has reportedly been taking some snaps at wideout during camp. While he could be an interesting option in some formats if he starts seeing regular time at receiver, Webb should not be drafted in fantasy leagues.
RUNNING BACK
[fullback] NAUFAHU TAHI looked like the starter when we went to press, but after he declared free agency RYAN D’IMPERIO has stepped into the first-team role. The fullback is not a big part of the Minnesota offense, and D’Imperio is not worth drafting in fantasy leagues.
WIDE RECEIVER
[starter] SIDNEY RICE signed a big free-agent deal with Seattle, so PERCY HARVIN moves up to the No.1 spot on the depth chart. Harvin’s game seems more attuned to being a complement rather than the top target, but he should see plenty of footballs heading in his general direction this season. If he can stay healthy, Harvin looks like a good low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout.
[starter] BERNARD BERRIAN was once again a colossal disappointment last season, as he failed to capitalize on Rice’s absence and averaged a career-low nine yards per reception. Rice’s departure gives Berrian yet another opportunity at making a fantasy splash, but given his failure to produce in a similar situation last year, we’re not banking on big numbers in 2011. Berrian is worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues, but that’s about it until he shows us something.
[third] Former Atlanta Falcon MICHAEL JENKINS signed a free-agent deal with the Vikes since the Guide went to press, and he should certainly be in the mix for receptions in Minnesota this year. The 6-foot-4 Jenkins scored seven times back in 2006, but his numbers have been rather pedestrian since then. He could be worth a flier if he cracks the starting lineup, but otherwise Jenkins can remain undrafted.
[fifth] JUAQUIN IGLESIAS and DEVIN AROMASHODU will vie for a roster spot, but neither figures to do enough to warrant fantasy consideration.
WAKE UP CALL 2011
[super sleeper] CHRISTIAN PONDER was our pick when the Guide went to press, but of course the McNabb acquisition changes that prognostication. Wideout BERNARD BERRIAN will have every opportunity to step in and put up numbers, so if you’re in a gambling mood call his name late in your draft and cross your fingers. Hey, somebody has to get in front of those passes, right?
There’s not too much to report from Chiefs camp, but there have been a few minor additions that could be of fantasy relevance. Keep in mind that we’re only posting updates to the Guide on this board. Here we go:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Buck Davidson
QUARTERBACK
[Second] Brodie Croyle is still a free agent, so TYLER PALKO has assumed the mantle of backup quarterback in Kansas City. Palko attempted only six passes last season, and it’s doubtful that he would be the long-term answer at quarterback even if starter Matt Cassel were to suffer a serious injury. It’s safe to leave Palko undrafted.
[Third]. Fifth-round draft pick RICKY STANZI could challenge for the backup job at some point. The former Iowa Hawkeye passed for 3,004 yards and 25 touchdowns during his senior season, while completing 64.1 percent of his passes and suffering just six interceptions. Stanzi should be ignored on draft day.
RUNNING BACK
[Fullback] LE’RON MCLAIN signed a free-agent deal August 3, and should take over as the starter. The Chiefs are emphasizing that McLain is a fullback, not a tailback – but his rep as a goal-line vulture during his days in Baltimore has to cause some concern for potential Jamaal Charles owners. We don’t believe McLain will do enough to warrant a selection on draft day, though – and we’re also not downgrading Charles – yet.
WIDE RECEIVER
[Fourth] Former Arizona Cardinal STEVE BREASTON looked to be on the verge of a breakout when the Cards moved him into Anquan Boldin’s old digs last season, but the speedster turned out to be a much better No. 3 than a No. 2 wideout. He’ll be back in the slot after signing a free agent deal with K.C., though, and that could make him a very interesting fantasy option late in the draft. If he can stay healthy, Breaston could quietly play his way into fantasy relevance in what suddenly looks like a markedly improved Chiefs offense.
Two key losses have made it necessary to downgrade Big Blue’s passing game.
Steve E. Smith, who is coming off microfracture knee surgery, has signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. Mario Manningham will get the starting nod in Smith’s place. We still think Manningham has solid No. 2 fantasy receiver value with upside. Domenik Hixon and Victor Cruz are the frontrunners to replace Manningham in the slot, but both players are downgrades from Manningham ability-wise and not fantasy starter material. The free-agent loss of Kevin Boss (Raiders) was unexpected. Boss, a jack-of-all-trades, was a valued blocker and competent receiver. Travis Beckum, who is considered a stronger receiver than Boss but a weaker blocker, is expected to start. Beckum is not worth drafting, but keep an eye on him.
We had rated Eli Manning as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterbaack in The Guide, but the depatures of Smith and Boss make it necessary to downgrade Manning to midrange No. 2 fantasy quarterback status.
Updating the Free Agent Roundup:
Following the lockout, the Ravens made a couple of surprise personnel moves that have impacted their passing game – and not for the better. Here is a summary from a fantasy perspective: (updated to include the acquisition of Lee Evans from Buffalo).
We had billed Joe Flacco as a high-end No. 2 fantasy quarterback with minimal upside, but we’re backing off that prediction. Although Derrick Mason (Jets) and Todd Heap (Cardinals) were not exactly playing at All-Pro levels, the surprise decision to release both players – and Baltimore’s inability or unwillingness to replace them with at least equal talent – is a killer for Flacco’s fantasy value. You should consider Flacco as a just a midrange No. 2 fantasy passer or stopgap option in what may have to be a more run-oriented attack.
After rookie second-rounder Torrey Smith quickly proved with poor route-running (among other things) that he was not ready for a starting role, Baltimore acquired Lee Evans, who is expected to start alongside Boldin. Evans has lost some speed, but he is expected to be the designated field-stretcher and big-play guy. Last season, Evans was thoroughly outplayed by Steve Johnson, and slot guy Roscoe Parrish also was amassing better stats until he suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Regard Evans as a No. 4 fantasy wideout with a little more value in standard scoring leagues.
The talented Ed Dickson, a third-round selection in 2010, is the leading candidate to replace Heap, but hold the phone on that. Dickson missed Baltimore’s first preseason game with a hamstring injury, and Dennis Pitta looked decent as the starter, catching four balls for 47 yards. It’s hard to like either Dickson or Pitta as fantasy starters, but they are worth watching. The fantasy stock of the declining Anquan Boldin – we see him as a midrange No. 3 fantasy wideout – stays the same.
The fantasy value of Ray Rice should rise a little bit in leagues with point-per-reception scoring. With a sudden shortage of proven receiving talent, Flacco probably will throw a little more often to Rice (he caught 63 balls for 556 yards and one score in 2010). By the way, Rice’s new backup is Ricky Williams. The former Miami Dolphin replaces Willis McGahee (Broncos) and will have fantasy reserve value as Rice’s handcuff.
Updating the Free Agent Roundup:
– Matt Wilson
by Marc Meltzer
The following are some of the players affected by the recent free agent and trading frenzy that find themselves in a better position to make a positive fantasy contribution in 2011. Included with each player is the rank they appear in the magazine and where they would rank today.
Quarterback Kevin Kolb moves up from 24 to 14. There were worse spots than Arizona where Kolb could have landed. Certainly Larry Fitzgerald is happy.
Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck moves up from 28 to 21 with the move from Seattle to Tennessee
Arizona sees running back Ryan Williams move up from 31 to 24 and Beanie Wells move up from 41 to 34.
Reggie Bush moves up from 46 to 41 into a Dolphins offense short of big play makers.
Ricky Williams moves from 50 to 43. If Willis McGahee can vulture touchdowns from Ray Rice so can Williams.
Wide receiver Derrick Mason goes from 43 up to 33 with the move east to the Jets.
Tight end Greg Olsen makes the biggest jump of all players going from 21 up to 7 with the move away from the Mike Martz tight end deprived offense in Chicago to the fresh start Carolina Panthers.
A few big changes have altered Arizona’s lineup significantly since the Guide went to press; here’s how those transactions could affect the players involved from a fantasy perspective. Keep in mind that these are only the changes, not the full team report.
ARIZONA CARDINALS:
QUARTERBACK
[Starter] The Cardinals acquired KEVIN KOLB from Philadelphia July 29, and the team will look to the fifth-year pro to lead the offense in 2011. Kolb was slated to be the Eagles’ starter last season, but an injury in Week 1 opened the door for Michael Vick to claim the job. Kolb was decent filling in for Vick later in the year, but he returned to the bench when Vick returned to the field. Kolb is unproven, but he has the tools for success in the NFL. As Arizona’s starting signal-caller, Kolb is a decent fantasy backup – and he has the upside to be a spot starter later in the season.
[Second] JOHN SKELTON has a strong arm that isn’t overly accurate, but he did start the last four games for the Cards in 2010. Kolb’s arrival relegates Skelton to a backup role, and he should not be drafted in fantasy play.
[Third]. DEREK ANDERSON has been released, so look for MAX HALL, who was pegged as the backup in this year’s Guide, to tote the clipboard and sport the tasty headgear on the sidelines – assuming he’s unable to supplant Skelton, of course. Hall didn’t show much in his three starts last season, and one would reckon that the Cards would bring in another signal-caller before handing the keys back to Maxie.
RUNNING BACK
[Starter] BEANIE WELLS should see a slight bump in fantasy value now that Tim Hightower has been traded to Washington, but Beanie still needs to step up and show why the Cards spent their No. 1 draft pick on him back in 2009. He supposedly looks like a new man this year, but he’ll still have to fend off rookie Ryan Williams for touches. We saw Wells as a No. 4 or No. 5 running back in the Guide; Hightower’s departure bumps Beanie up to a solid No 4 or possibly a low-end No. 3 fantasy running back.
[Backup] RYAN WILLIAMS looks to be in line to back up Wells, and he could vulture a decent share of the workload if Beanie’s reported turnaround turns out to be a mirage. Hightower’s departure makes Williams a decent handcuff for Wells’ fantasy owners, but you’ll probably have to make your move fairly early in your draft.
[Third] TIM HIGHTOWER is now plying his trade in Washington, meaning that the No. 3 running back’s job in Arizona figures to be a battle between LAROD STEPHENS-HOWLING and ALFONSO SMITH. Stephens-Howling’s return skills should win him a spot, but neither he nor Smith are worth drafting.
WIDE RECEIVER
[Starter] Kolb’s trade to Arizona boosted not only his fantasy value, but it gave reassurance to potential LARRY FITZGERALD owners that their man might be back among the fantasy elite in 2011. Fitz should pile up the receptions and yardage again, but he’ll draw plenty of attention near the goal line – which could potentially limit his scoring potential. We slotted Fitzgerald as a No. 2 wideout in the Guide, but Kolb’s presence motivates us to bump Fitz up to a solid No. 1.
[Starter] STEVE BREASTON departed via free agency, and the Cards are rather thin at wideout as a result. EARLY DOUCET underwent surgery for a sports hernia in the offseason, and he may be limited in the early part of the 2011 campaign. Doucet’s history of injuries does not bode well for his fantasy prospects, and he is a best a No. 5 wideout – if healthy.
[Third] ANDRE ROBERTS has a chance to step up and assert himself now that Breaston is gone, and his 24-307-2 line last season is at least mildly encouraging. Leave him undrafted until he proves himself, but if he reprises his punt-return role, he should have modest value in leagues that count return yardage.
[Fourth] STEPHEN WILLIAMS and CHANSI STUCKEY figure to battle it out for a roster spot, but neither should generate much in the way of fantasy production.
TIGHT END
[Starter] TODD HEAP posted 40-599-5 in 13 games for Baltimore last season, but he’s not the downfield threat he was several seasons ago. He should be the starter in Arizona, but with so many quality tight ends out there, Heap will likely be no more than a fantasy backup.
[Backup] ROB HOUSLER looked to be a player to watch this season, but the addition of Heap mutes his fantasy potential significantly. Unless Heap is injured, Housler won’t see enough action to warrant fantasy consideration. Watch him if Heap goes down, though, as his speed and athleticism could make him a waiver-wire gem.
SPECIAL TEAMS
[Kicker] JAY FEELY should benefit from Kolb’s arrival, but he still looks like more of a bye-week replacement kicker than a draft-and-hold kind of guy.
That’s it for now; I’ll try to keep this up to date as events warrant. Good luck this season
- Buck
This site will have updates and corrections to this year’s Guide.
You’ll find posts categorized as Teams, for updates to the team profiles and the annotated depth charts, and Positions, for updates to the position rankings.
We’ll post updated Draft at a Glance charts once the free agents have signed, and a new mock draft a couple weeks before the start of the season, to help put all the new rankings in perspective.
Thanks for buying this year’s Fantasy Football Guide, and best wishes for the new season.