Thursday, January 17, 2008
Rick Wilton's 2007 Injury Report: Last Year's Epidemic
Injury Epidemic Strikes Baseball
Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report
Last season, 404 players were placed on the disabled list. This is the first time more than 400 players landed on the DL this century and most likely in the history of the DL.
From 2002-2006, an average of 355 players per season landed on the DL. Last season’s 404 is a 12.8 percent jump over the prior five year average. It doesn’t stop there. The five year average of DLDs (days on the DL) was 23,551 per season. In 2007, it skyrocketed to 28,524, a 19.5 percent increase over the five-year average. Injuries definitely took their toll on baseball in 2007.
Why the huge increase? There are most likely several reasons. First, PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) must be a factor though it is impossible to gauge how much of an impact they have had on injuries. Two years ago, major league baseball installed a tougher testing policy, yet the DL numbers did not move dramatically in either direction the first year out. Speculation in baseball circles is that HGH (human growth hormone), for which there is no ML test right now, has replaced steroids as the PED of choice. The bottom line regarding PEDs is that we're seeing more injuries now than a decade ago. It stands to reason that PEDs are at least part of the blame, but unfortunately it is impossible to determine how much.
The second reason is broader. Players are working harder to increase their strength, even by legal means. Stretching and flexibility has not kept pace with the increase in overall player strength. A great example can be seen with an injury like a strained oblique. From 2002 to 2007, while the number of oblique injuries remained fairly small, the quantity doubled in that time frame. One strength coach who works with major league players in the offseason told me last summer that today’s players are not as dedicated as they should be to maintaining the correct level of flexibility. The result is more pulls, strains and tendon injuries.
Lastly, teams have huge investments in players and they are more likely to protect their investments by placing a player, especially a pitcher, on the DL even though he might be able to work his way through the ailment. The thinking is, "let us invest a couple of weeks in DL time to get him healthy rather than risk a much more serious injury."
What can we expect in 2008? If the 12.8 percent increase in the number of players landing on the DL last season was a statistical aberration, a blip, we are likely to see a return to the prior level of DL trips and days spent on the DL. If the number of players again passes the 400 level and the DLDs are near 28,000, then we can conclude a higher rate of injuries is likely here, at least for a while.
Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report
Last season, 404 players were placed on the disabled list. This is the first time more than 400 players landed on the DL this century and most likely in the history of the DL.
From 2002-2006, an average of 355 players per season landed on the DL. Last season’s 404 is a 12.8 percent jump over the prior five year average. It doesn’t stop there. The five year average of DLDs (days on the DL) was 23,551 per season. In 2007, it skyrocketed to 28,524, a 19.5 percent increase over the five-year average. Injuries definitely took their toll on baseball in 2007.
Why the huge increase? There are most likely several reasons. First, PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) must be a factor though it is impossible to gauge how much of an impact they have had on injuries. Two years ago, major league baseball installed a tougher testing policy, yet the DL numbers did not move dramatically in either direction the first year out. Speculation in baseball circles is that HGH (human growth hormone), for which there is no ML test right now, has replaced steroids as the PED of choice. The bottom line regarding PEDs is that we're seeing more injuries now than a decade ago. It stands to reason that PEDs are at least part of the blame, but unfortunately it is impossible to determine how much.
The second reason is broader. Players are working harder to increase their strength, even by legal means. Stretching and flexibility has not kept pace with the increase in overall player strength. A great example can be seen with an injury like a strained oblique. From 2002 to 2007, while the number of oblique injuries remained fairly small, the quantity doubled in that time frame. One strength coach who works with major league players in the offseason told me last summer that today’s players are not as dedicated as they should be to maintaining the correct level of flexibility. The result is more pulls, strains and tendon injuries.
Lastly, teams have huge investments in players and they are more likely to protect their investments by placing a player, especially a pitcher, on the DL even though he might be able to work his way through the ailment. The thinking is, "let us invest a couple of weeks in DL time to get him healthy rather than risk a much more serious injury."
What can we expect in 2008? If the 12.8 percent increase in the number of players landing on the DL last season was a statistical aberration, a blip, we are likely to see a return to the prior level of DL trips and days spent on the DL. If the number of players again passes the 400 level and the DLDs are near 28,000, then we can conclude a higher rate of injuries is likely here, at least for a while.
Labels: 2007, DL, Injuries, obliques, PEDs, Rick Wilton
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
2007 Mock Draft Winner
This year's Mock Drafters were a little more verbose than usual, and kicked the featurette about last year's Mock Draft Winner to the website. Here it is:
The 2007 Mock Draft Winner
by Rotoman
Tom Kessenich, from fantasybaseballchampionship.com, drafted last year’s winning Mock team. Some will mock the importance of this, but we all play by the same rules, and by those rules Tom won. The two previous years Jason Grey and, um, I won.
Now, one reason the mock draft isn’t a perfect venue for judgment is that it takes place in early November, before all but the most impatient free agents have signed, before all but the most pathetic non-tenders have been non-tendered (or tendered), and then, of course, there are the miscellaneous motorcycle or deer hunting accidents.
But the fact is that only two players taken in last year’s mock didn’t play in 2007 (Mark Prior and Nick Johnson) and they were kind of predictable. So we all have the same amount of knowledge, even if it’s less than we’ll have in March. But few took Carlos Pena in March either.
So, here is Tom Kessenich’s draft, round by round, with his post-draft comments and my sniping observations a year later. Note that Tom had the 10th pick in the 15 team mixed draft.
Tom had none of those disasters in the early rounds, and his disasters in the middle were relatively mild. Only Millwood and Jeff Suppan were flat out negative. But the bottom line is that Tom turned what was probably a small lead into the rout it became in the last round, when he took Ryan Braun. Congratulations to him for a great and dominant draft (he beat baseballhq.com’s Doug Dennis by 18 points), and a most excellent last pick.
Too bad he couldn’t make it back to defend his crown this year.
The 2007 Mock Draft Winner
by Rotoman
Tom Kessenich, from fantasybaseballchampionship.com, drafted last year’s winning Mock team. Some will mock the importance of this, but we all play by the same rules, and by those rules Tom won. The two previous years Jason Grey and, um, I won.
Now, one reason the mock draft isn’t a perfect venue for judgment is that it takes place in early November, before all but the most impatient free agents have signed, before all but the most pathetic non-tenders have been non-tendered (or tendered), and then, of course, there are the miscellaneous motorcycle or deer hunting accidents.
But the fact is that only two players taken in last year’s mock didn’t play in 2007 (Mark Prior and Nick Johnson) and they were kind of predictable. So we all have the same amount of knowledge, even if it’s less than we’ll have in March. But few took Carlos Pena in March either.
So, here is Tom Kessenich’s draft, round by round, with his post-draft comments and my sniping observations a year later. Note that Tom had the 10th pick in the 15 team mixed draft.
- Round 1 (10): David Wright 3B—An emerging superstar. You got that right!
- Round 2 (20): Bobby Abreu OF—Plenty of HR and SB. You got that half right!
- Round 3 (40): Victor Martinez C—One of fantasy’s best at this position. Yes, indeed!
- Round 4 (50): Roy Oswalt P—He’s everything you want in an ace. Agreed!
- Round 5 (70): Edgar Renteria SS—Rock solid SS option. He certainly was last year!
- Round 6 (80): John Smoltz P—Still pitching at a very high level. And consistent, too!
- Round 7 (100): Adrian Gonzalez 1B—Plenty of power and upside. Which he realized!
- Round 8 (110): Magglio Ordonez OF—The ALCS hero. And one year later, nearly MVP!
- Round 9 (130): Todd Jones P—Still closing effectively. Hasn’t slowed down much!
- Round 10 (140): Ryan Freel OF—Speed, speed, speed. Actually, he did.
- Round 11 (160): Nomar Garciaparra 1B—Injuries a concern, but he can still hit. Injuries hurt, and he didn’t hit well.
- Round 12 (170): Chien-Ming Wang P—Emerged as Yankees’ ace in 2006. In 2007, too.
- Round 13 (190): Bob Wickman P—Crafter veteran is a good closer. When healthy, which he wasn’t last year.
- Round 14 (200): Ken Griffey OF—Injury prone but can still bash. And have a nice season every four years or so.
- Round 15 (220): Luis Castillo 2B—Regained his speed last season. Part of it, anyway, but a nice pick at this point.
- Round 16 (230): Kevin Millwood P—ERA’s a concern but he’ll help with wins. Unless he doesn’t.
- Round 17 (250): Paul Lo Duca C—Quality No. 2 catcher found very late. More like, okay, doesn’t stink.
- Round 18 (260): Juan Encarnacion OF—Underrated OF option. When he’s not hurt.
- Round 19 (280): Tom Glavine P—Lack of consistency a concern. In this league all that matters is how things turn out in the end. For TG, not so good.
- Round 20 (290): Ty Wigginton 1B/2B/3B—Surprising power last season. Not so surprising this year.
- Round 21 (310): Scott Linebrink P—One of the game’s best set-up men. Just okay the last two years.
- Round 22 (320): Jeff Suppan P—Finished strong in 2006. That didn’t continue in 2007.
- Round 23 (340): Ryan Braun 3B—Huge upside for this Brewers’ prospect. Fully realized!
Tom had none of those disasters in the early rounds, and his disasters in the middle were relatively mild. Only Millwood and Jeff Suppan were flat out negative. But the bottom line is that Tom turned what was probably a small lead into the rout it became in the last round, when he took Ryan Braun. Congratulations to him for a great and dominant draft (he beat baseballhq.com’s Doug Dennis by 18 points), and a most excellent last pick.
Too bad he couldn’t make it back to defend his crown this year.
Labels: 2007, Mock Draft, Winning
