Saturday, March 22, 2008
New projections
And prices. These are brand spanking new, but even since completing them Freddy Sanchez has gone hurting again.
Also, these are 4x4 prices. In 5x5 relief pitchers go down a bit, and even bad starters go up an equal bit. In hitters, playing time gets a bump.
I'll post the final projections here next weekend. Good luck.
Peter
032208projections.xls
Also, these are 4x4 prices. In 5x5 relief pitchers go down a bit, and even bad starters go up an equal bit. In hitters, playing time gets a bump.
I'll post the final projections here next weekend. Good luck.
Peter
032208projections.xls
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Updated projections
Guideprojections030508.xls
The link is to updated projections for nearly all major leaguers. These are in decent shape, but they still haven't been combed for imbalances and tough situations to call. For instance, Colorado 2B.
Right now all three candidates (yes, I'm stubbornly sticking with Marcus Giles a little) have about 700 AB projected. Baker is in the lead, I don't really believe in Nix (but he'll run some if he gets PT) and I'm living in the past, it seems, on Giles. In a week or two I think we'll have a better idea of how that's going to shake out.
If you're drafting today in an NL league it isn't a terrible play to grab any of them at the end of the draft to fill a MI slot, but then you just have to hope you get lucky.
The link is to updated projections for nearly all major leaguers. These are in decent shape, but they still haven't been combed for imbalances and tough situations to call. For instance, Colorado 2B.
Right now all three candidates (yes, I'm stubbornly sticking with Marcus Giles a little) have about 700 AB projected. Baker is in the lead, I don't really believe in Nix (but he'll run some if he gets PT) and I'm living in the past, it seems, on Giles. In a week or two I think we'll have a better idea of how that's going to shake out.
If you're drafting today in an NL league it isn't a terrible play to grab any of them at the end of the draft to fill a MI slot, but then you just have to hope you get lucky.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
A Reader Writes about DH Games Played
Your decision or oversite in not providing info on number of DH appearances on the player profiles diminishes the value of your usefulness. In the past, FBG has been one of my chief sources of information heading in to the draft. This year I must seek out additional sources for rather basic player information.
I'm disappointed.
GA
To which I wrote back:
I'm sorry you feel that way. The last time we included DH information for major leaguers was 2005. This is the third year of the DH-less major league games played lines. My feeling was that the DH display was the clearest way to differentiate between ML and Minor League games played lines in the stat boxes, and that the DH info is much more important at the minor league level than at the major league level.
I'm sorry to disappoint you, and will consider a different way of presenting the information if there is some sort of consensus that there is a better way to do things. I've posted your email and my answer on the website, and request that interested readers post comments if they care.
Cheers,
Peter
GA
To which I wrote back:
I'm sorry you feel that way. The last time we included DH information for major leaguers was 2005. This is the third year of the DH-less major league games played lines. My feeling was that the DH display was the clearest way to differentiate between ML and Minor League games played lines in the stat boxes, and that the DH info is much more important at the minor league level than at the major league level.
I'm sorry to disappoint you, and will consider a different way of presenting the information if there is some sort of consensus that there is a better way to do things. I've posted your email and my answer on the website, and request that interested readers post comments if they care.
Cheers,
Peter
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Daisuke Matsuzaka
The projections in the magazine are improved this year. I spent a lot more time twiddling with the mechanicals, which are usually pretty good for the vets but don't get playing time for the youngsters and the injured.
But the mechanicals also took Japanese baseball history for DiceK as if it were MLB play, giving him an inflated set of mechanicals that I failed to adjust. I'm in the process of doing updated projections, a set of which will be available here about Feb 1st, so I don't know where Daisuke will land exactly, but I'm optimistic for him this year.
I'd say 17 wins, 8 losses, 3.50, 195 K, 1.22 WHIP. Or thereabouts.
But the mechanicals also took Japanese baseball history for DiceK as if it were MLB play, giving him an inflated set of mechanicals that I failed to adjust. I'm in the process of doing updated projections, a set of which will be available here about Feb 1st, so I don't know where Daisuke will land exactly, but I'm optimistic for him this year.
I'd say 17 wins, 8 losses, 3.50, 195 K, 1.22 WHIP. Or thereabouts.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Chad Tracy's Blood is Thinner
Tracy had surgery to repair a fracture and was expected to probably be ready for spring training, but as the magazine was going to be it was revealed that he'd developed a blood clot and was on blood thinners. He can't play until the clot issue is resolved and it isn't yet, so there is some good chance that he won't be ready come opening day. That makes his $17 bid price way high at this point. When we know when he's going to start to play, prorate it.
Labels: 2008, bid price, blood thinner, Chad Tracy, injury
Mach Ian Snell Carlos Marmol
That's what I did to poor Todd Zola, who chose to make a PICK of Ian Snell but had his comment land beneath Carlos Marmol. I'm not going to try to figure out how that happened, or how none of us noticed it given the contents of the PICK:
ZOLA PICK: Ian Snell--Forget the Wins. Snell improved his skills in 2007. Predicting year three of a talented player is as difficult as it gets. My spidey sense is telling me what we saw is real and Snell will continue to get better.
But like Spiderman, perhaps, continue to suffer identity issues. Sorry about that Todd.
ZOLA PICK: Ian Snell--Forget the Wins. Snell improved his skills in 2007. Predicting year three of a talented player is as difficult as it gets. My spidey sense is telling me what we saw is real and Snell will continue to get better.
But like Spiderman, perhaps, continue to suffer identity issues. Sorry about that Todd.
Labels: 2008, correction, Ian Snell, picks, profiles
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Oh Preston Wilson!
Everybody looks so healthy around the Thanksgiving holidays. Maybe it's the tryptophane, or the pinot noir. In any case, a $6 bid price doesn't look so good for Preston Wilson, who is coming back from knee surgery and hasn't really looked like a major league player since early in 2006. But unlike Alex Escobar (see yesterday's correction), who has managed to eke out about 400 plate appearances during his lengthy career, Wilson was a bona fide star for a little while, and earned $12 and a World Series ring two years ago.
Don't count on him, but he's not necessarily done. Instead of $6 he should have been listed as a sleeper.
Don't count on him, but he's not necessarily done. Instead of $6 he should have been listed as a sleeper.
Labels: corrections, Guide 2008, sleepers
Monday, January 21, 2008
Today's correx
I'm working on updated projections and there are plenty of little tweaks and changes because of various signings and releases. I should probably do a better job of documenting what all those changes are, but I don't. I did notice while going through the projections that I put a bid price on Alex Escobar of $8, who is currently a free agent. That was wack.
Not that he couldn't earn that if he stayed healthy, but he's never stayed healthy. If he looks like he has a shot at playing time on draft day he's worth a few bucks. Even if he's sort of buried but kind of healthy he's worth a buck. But these are end game plays when everyone good is gone. $8? What was I thinking?
Not that he couldn't earn that if he stayed healthy, but he's never stayed healthy. If he looks like he has a shot at playing time on draft day he's worth a few bucks. Even if he's sort of buried but kind of healthy he's worth a buck. But these are end game plays when everyone good is gone. $8? What was I thinking?
Labels: Alex Escobar, bid price, correction, Injuries
Mock CSV
For those who asked for a pick by pick listing of the Mock, here's the CreativeSportsMock.csv.
The link or target as a csv file, which will open in any spreadsheet.
The link or target as a csv file, which will open in any spreadsheet.
Labels: creativesports.com, Mock Draft
