The Fantasy Baseball Guide

The projections in the magazine are improved this year. I spent a lot more time twiddling with the mechanicals, which are usually pretty good for the vets but don't get playing time for the youngsters and the injured.

But the mechanicals also took Japanese baseball history for DiceK as if it were MLB play, giving him an inflated set of mechanicals that I failed to adjust. I'm in the process of doing updated projections, a set of which will be available here about Feb 1st, so I don't know where Daisuke will land exactly, but I'm optimistic for him this year.

I'd say 17 wins, 8 losses, 3.50, 195 K, 1.22 WHIP. Or thereabouts.

Tracy had surgery to repair a fracture and was expected to probably be ready for spring training, but as the magazine was going to be it was revealed that he'd developed a blood clot and was on blood thinners. He can't play until the clot issue is resolved and it isn't yet, so there is some good chance that he won't be ready come opening day. That makes his $17 bid price way high at this point. When we know when he's going to start to play, prorate it.

Labels: 2008, bid price, blood thinner, Chad Tracy, injury

That's what I did to poor Todd Zola, who chose to make a PICK of Ian Snell but had his comment land beneath Carlos Marmol. I'm not going to try to figure out how that happened, or how none of us noticed it given the contents of the PICK:

ZOLA PICK: Ian Snell--Forget the Wins. Snell improved his skills in 2007. Predicting year three of a talented player is as difficult as it gets. My spidey sense is telling me what we saw is real and Snell will continue to get better.

But like Spiderman, perhaps, continue to suffer identity issues. Sorry about that Todd.

Labels: 2008, correction, Ian Snell, picks, profiles

Everybody looks so healthy around the Thanksgiving holidays. Maybe it's the tryptophane, or the pinot noir. In any case, a $6 bid price doesn't look so good for Preston Wilson, who is coming back from knee surgery and hasn't really looked like a major league player since early in 2006. But unlike Alex Escobar (see yesterday's correction), who has managed to eke out about 400 plate appearances during his lengthy career, Wilson was a bona fide star for a little while, and earned $12 and a World Series ring two years ago.

Don't count on him, but he's not necessarily done. Instead of $6 he should have been listed as a sleeper.

Labels: corrections, Guide 2008, sleepers

I'm working on updated projections and there are plenty of little tweaks and changes because of various signings and releases. I should probably do a better job of documenting what all those changes are, but I don't. I did notice while going through the projections that I put a bid price on Alex Escobar of $8, who is currently a free agent. That was wack.

Not that he couldn't earn that if he stayed healthy, but he's never stayed healthy. If he looks like he has a shot at playing time on draft day he's worth a few bucks. Even if he's sort of buried but kind of healthy he's worth a buck. But these are end game plays when everyone good is gone. $8? What was I thinking?

Labels: Alex Escobar, bid price, correction, Injuries

For those who asked for a pick by pick listing of the Mock, here's the CreativeSportsMock.csv.

The link or target as a csv file, which will open in any spreadsheet.

Labels: creativesports.com, Mock Draft

In my interview with Jeff Erickson, on page 12, I point out that Mike Lombardo had won Tout Wars NL two of the previous three years by buying the best starters, spending there because others weren't. Then I note that while this is clearly a successful strategy for Mike, he finished (and this is where I get into trouble) last the other year using the same strategy.

Actually, he got off to a miserable start, was in last for much of the first half of the season, but then played brilliantly the rest of the year and finished eighth.

It would have been better if I checked the fact before printing it. Sorry Mike.

Labels: corrections

The hitter Shinnosuke Abe is not eligible to become a NPB free agent until 2010, not 2009 as his capsule says.

Brian Walton did not draft Huston Street twice in the mock draft. In the ninth round he took Fausto Carmona. In the 10th round he took Street.

If you want to check out the draft grid at mockdraftcentral.com, click the link.

Keep those corrections coming to askrotoman(at)gmail.com. Thanks.

Injury Epidemic Strikes Baseball
Rick Wilton, Baseball Injury Report

Last season, 404 players were placed on the disabled list. This is the first time more than 400 players landed on the DL this century and most likely in the history of the DL.


From 2002-2006, an average of 355 players per season landed on the DL. Last season’s 404 is a 12.8 percent jump over the prior five year average. It doesn’t stop there. The five year average of DLDs (days on the DL) was 23,551 per season. In 2007, it skyrocketed to 28,524, a 19.5 percent increase over the five-year average. Injuries definitely took their toll on baseball in 2007.





Why the huge increase? There are most likely several reasons. First, PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) must be a factor though it is impossible to gauge how much of an impact they have had on injuries. Two years ago, major league baseball installed a tougher testing policy, yet the DL numbers did not move dramatically in either direction the first year out. Speculation in baseball circles is that HGH (human growth hormone), for which there is no ML test right now, has replaced steroids as the PED of choice. The bottom line regarding PEDs is that we're seeing more injuries now than a decade ago. It stands to reason that PEDs are at least part of the blame, but unfortunately it is impossible to determine how much.

The second reason is broader. Players are working harder to increase their strength, even by legal means. Stretching and flexibility has not kept pace with the increase in overall player strength. A great example can be seen with an injury like a strained oblique. From 2002 to 2007, while the number of oblique injuries remained fairly small, the quantity doubled in that time frame. One strength coach who works with major league players in the offseason told me last summer that today’s players are not as dedicated as they should be to maintaining the correct level of flexibility. The result is more pulls, strains and tendon injuries.

Lastly, teams have huge investments in players and they are more likely to protect their investments by placing a player, especially a pitcher, on the DL even though he might be able to work his way through the ailment. The thinking is, "let us invest a couple of weeks in DL time to get him healthy rather than risk a much more serious injury."

What can we expect in 2008? If the 12.8 percent increase in the number of players landing on the DL last season was a statistical aberration, a blip, we are likely to see a return to the prior level of DL trips and days spent on the DL. If the number of players again passes the 400 level and the DLDs are near 28,000, then we can conclude a higher rate of injuries is likely here, at least for a while.

Labels: 2007, DL, Injuries, obliques, PEDs, Rick Wilton

The magazine arrived at my house last night, which should mean it will start showing up in stores early next week. Each year the battle to eradicate typos and fix mistakes before we print the thing gets more heated, and I think each year we've done a generally better job on the small stuff. But the schedule, weariness, the small staff, the miserable wages, all work against us. Over the coming weeks I"ll be chronicaling the things that went awry here, just so you know I'm paying attention.

Kosuke Fukudome: He was unsigned until the day the magazine shipped, and I put off making a projection or price for him because I thought there was some chance he'd sign in Japan. In retrospect that was wrong and I probably should have known it then. In any case, I'll project him soon, but I can say that my price for him today is $12. He's going to go for more than that in most NL leagues and he may earn it, but I'm not sure the power is going to translate, and I think it's a risk to think his transition is going to be seamless. It could happen, but coming off an injury and surgery and all, I'm not getting aggressive.

Akinori Otsuka: He had surgery yesterday. You can take the $12 I suggested for Otsuka and pay Fukudome with it. The comment suggests that surgery may be in the works, but didn't anticipate the Rangers releasing him. He's not a factor this year.

Page 160: That's the back page. Meryl Gordon is the spouse who wrote about her strategy to help her husband, Walter, win the American Dream League. I spelled her name right in the by line and the bio, but a late addition xref to Walter's story resulted in a misspelling. It's a terrible mistake to misspell someone's name and I'm sorry. I'm also sorry for a vicepresidentialish gaffe on the plural of Burrito in the article's art. Ouch.

I also found some bad grammar this afternoon but now I've lost it. Feel free to note more errors in the comments, or write me at askrotoman(at)gmail.com. Thanks.

This year's Mock Drafters were a little more verbose than usual, and kicked the featurette about last year's Mock Draft Winner to the website. Here it is:

The 2007 Mock Draft Winner
by Rotoman

Tom Kessenich, from fantasybaseballchampionship.com, drafted last year’s winning Mock team. Some will mock the importance of this, but we all play by the same rules, and by those rules Tom won. The two previous years Jason Grey and, um, I won.

Now, one reason the mock draft isn’t a perfect venue for judgment is that it takes place in early November, before all but the most impatient free agents have signed, before all but the most pathetic non-tenders have been non-tendered (or tendered), and then, of course, there are the miscellaneous motorcycle or deer hunting accidents.

But the fact is that only two players taken in last year’s mock didn’t play in 2007 (Mark Prior and Nick Johnson) and they were kind of predictable. So we all have the same amount of knowledge, even if it’s less than we’ll have in March. But few took Carlos Pena in March either.

So, here is Tom Kessenich’s draft, round by round, with his post-draft comments and my sniping observations a year later. Note that Tom had the 10th pick in the 15 team mixed draft.

• Round 1 (10): David Wright 3B—An emerging superstar. You got that right!
• Round 2 (20): Bobby Abreu OF—Plenty of HR and SB. You got that half right!
• Round 3 (40): Victor Martinez C—One of fantasy’s best at this position. Yes, indeed!
• Round 4 (50): Roy Oswalt P—He’s everything you want in an ace. Agreed!
• Round 5 (70): Edgar Renteria SS—Rock solid SS option. He certainly was last year!
• Round 6 (80): John Smoltz P—Still pitching at a very high level. And consistent, too!
• Round 7 (100): Adrian Gonzalez 1B—Plenty of power and upside. Which he realized!
• Round 8 (110): Magglio Ordonez OF—The ALCS hero. And one year later, nearly MVP!
• Round 9 (130): Todd Jones P—Still closing effectively. Hasn’t slowed down much!
• Round 10 (140): Ryan Freel OF—Speed, speed, speed. Actually, he did.
• Round 11 (160): Nomar Garciaparra 1B—Injuries a concern, but he can still hit. Injuries hurt, and he didn’t hit well.
• Round 12 (170): Chien-Ming Wang P—Emerged as Yankees’ ace in 2006. In 2007, too.
• Round 13 (190): Bob Wickman P—Crafter veteran is a good closer. When healthy, which he wasn’t last year.
• Round 14 (200): Ken Griffey OF—Injury prone but can still bash. And have a nice season every four years or so.
• Round 15 (220): Luis Castillo 2B—Regained his speed last season. Part of it, anyway, but a nice pick at this point.
• Round 16 (230): Kevin Millwood P—ERA’s a concern but he’ll help with wins. Unless he doesn’t.
• Round 17 (250): Paul Lo Duca C—Quality No. 2 catcher found very late. More like, okay, doesn’t stink.
• Round 18 (260): Juan Encarnacion OF—Underrated OF option. When he’s not hurt.
• Round 19 (280): Tom Glavine P—Lack of consistency a concern. In this league all that matters is how things turn out in the end. For TG, not so good.
• Round 20 (290): Ty Wigginton 1B/2B/3B—Surprising power last season. Not so surprising this year.
• Round 21 (310): Scott Linebrink P—One of the game’s best set-up men. Just okay the last two years.
• Round 22 (320): Jeff Suppan P—Finished strong in 2006. That didn’t continue in 2007.
• Round 23 (340): Ryan Braun 3B—Huge upside for this Brewers’ prospect. Fully realized!

Tom’s first nine rounds were golden. There may have been better picks at some points, in restrospect, but there wasn’t a bad pick in the bunch. Looking over the drafts of other teams this isn’t the case. Injuries are the big culprit. Bob Ashmen took Albert Pujols with the first pick, and while Albert disappointed he didn’t wreck Bob’s season. Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, Dontrelle Willis and Jorge Cantu (the cost of drafting in November) saw to that.

Tom had none of those disasters in the early rounds, and his disasters in the middle were relatively mild. Only Millwood and Jeff Suppan were flat out negative. But the bottom line is that Tom turned what was probably a small lead into the rout it became in the last round, when he took Ryan Braun. Congratulations to him for a great and dominant draft (he beat baseballhq.com’s Doug Dennis by 18 points), and a most excellent last pick.

Too bad he couldn’t make it back to defend his crown this year.

Labels: 2007, Mock Draft, Winning

Expect copies to start showing up in the next week or so.

Labels: A-Rod, cover, The Guide

2007profitloss.xls (148kb, excel file)

Because of a boomlet of advertising we had to move some Statland pages from the printed magazine to the website. The profit loss statements get sortable as excel files, which isn't a bad thing.

For those who don't do excel, here's a text file.

2007profitloss.txt (232kb,text file)

Labels: cost, earned, Guide 2008, statland, stats

This is the home page for the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008. The page isn't password protected but there are no links here except in the magazine.

You'll find corrections here until there aren't any more, and projection updates and updated bid prices here at the start of March and the end of March.

If you'd like to find more player comments and exciting discussions about players, please visit pattonandco.com.

You'll also find answers to fantasy baseball questions and more exciting discussions at talk.askrotoman.com.